4min chapter

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War for Taiwan: What Happens If China Wins?

ChinaTalk

CHAPTER

How Robust Is That, June Gerard?

June Gerard: We were deliberately vague about the military aspects, but I think if the point is to get to an end state where there is both conflict and China essentially prevails, at least in a territorial sense, it's hard to imagine China achieving that without there being observable steps being taken. So we're assuming that most of the implications of what we're running through here should be fairly robust to our admittedly vague assumptions. June Gerard: You can imagine a world, although I think it's low probability, you know, where China is able to go in quick and fast without a real significant observable buildup. And then I think critically, basically have the whole world shrug, right?

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