The Mystery of the 60-40 Portfolio | 23min snip from The Meb Faber Show

Speaker 2
I mean are you denying these these three facts yeah I mean I don't believe in government numbers okay all right well I don't believe government numbers well we've been using the same goddamn government numbers forever but that's fine I'm saying like you know look at grocery bills you know like I just don't buy it and underplums are lowest again okay yeah labor force participation being a different number I get it all right it is what it is we'll see you know like you're you're probably
Speaker 1
right you're probably right I'm the conspiracy theorist there's no doubt I'm just saying I don't know I mean I think if everybody looks at their 401k you know thing this especially after this last couple weeks this is um it's ending on a huge rally as far as the stock market for
Speaker 2
I suppose the
Speaker 1
guy looks at that all the time now
Speaker 2
look I mean look people like you and me have clearly benefited you know I get it we're in the upper you know whatever but I don't I'm not getting that vibe at
Speaker 1
all for the rest of the you know it's funny I you know I work with a guy a younger guy his name is Cole and his friends call it the vibe the vibe what is it vibe vibe session right meaning there's really all the numbers are what they are and he you know people his friends might be making more than they ever have they have jobs their friends have better jobs and and you know yeah the stock markets up maybe they're not participating all these factors are there but the vibe is one of like you know it's not like it's almost what you kind of expressing now I'm saying those numbers you're laughing because there's not a feeling of that I don't know how that there's not a feeling of it because there's not the reality of it yeah I mean I don't know I can't have an argument with somebody when we have numbers and we've been using these numbers and they're just going to say I don't believe those numbers so fine let's use government numbers okay I just don't
Speaker 2
let's use government numbers right let's just use government numbers I mean I
Speaker 1
was trying to end this on like you know go through this and have it on a high note
Speaker 2
as far as I believe me we're gonna end on a high note I'm just saying fine let's use government numbers like home price have done what since 2019 up up up how much like 50-60 percent right
Speaker 1
it's uh it's insane yeah it's insane
Speaker 2
how much of real wage growth from 2019 for
Speaker 1
coal and his buddies it has not moved beyond any of the averages that it has been for right
Speaker 2
it's not 50-60 percent so when we're talking about vibe session yes because those young men aren't buying a house they're not buying a house anytime in their fucking lifetime right so no right that's using government numbers so no
Speaker 1
using government numbers I'm saying you're saying okay if you want to buy a home that that particular segment which we happen to be in is miserable absolutely right yeah but there's not I mean there's a lot of people who don't buy homes too okay
Speaker 2
fine it's fine so now you want to buy a car have you looked at car prices of late like gas prices like okay let's use government numbers you know that's what I'm saying but again gas prices are going down I'm the conspiracy I totally get it I own it I own the that part of things but to end on a high note I don't want to point out that I think I
Speaker 1
get the steak dinner right I think I win the bet I think on the I think on the below four million I could not even imagine that you will but that that's absolutely steak dinner for Rob yeah I will take one on one
Speaker 2
from the one on one I know I will take suggestions from the audience as to what steak I should order whatever it is that I see you
Speaker 1
decided where we went to go have my steak dinner so I think I get to decide you get to see that Sonny can come with Jen and I now well let's go let's let's you know on that let's uh as we you know have a wrap up here let's let's do some predictions of our own right um let's start off with that what what are uh what's your predictions and we'll we'll put a little tag on a okay okay a steak dinner on these ones too here what's your prediction for uh home sales in 2024 I think
Speaker 2
existing home sales 2024 come in under four
Speaker 1
million again again wow okay okay I'm gonna say over four million is that a
Speaker 2
bet sure yeah over under yeah I'm under for your you're over for right okay good okay
Speaker 1
NAR membership
Speaker 2
when uh you
Speaker 1
tell me so I would
Speaker 2
say end of 24 which means we're really not going to go until like January 25 right you know I mean like because when when NAR used that this building cycle right we're not going to go until sometime in the spring as to what the members membership they release
Speaker 1
numbers every core every month right
Speaker 2
yeah but yeah but I mean I'll point
Speaker 1
to the website
Speaker 2
yeah yeah but I mean it's like all the 1.6 million realtors right now have to renew their NAR membership for 24 like right now
Speaker 1
well if I if I join an association in July I only pay half I
Speaker 2
think they there's like some pro rating I do remember that but the renew I'm just saying the renew notice have already gone out so people have renewed right so I'm
Speaker 1
saying I'm saying this every they they put numbers out every month right so they're gonna put a number out in January they're gonna put a number out in February are you saying the February number of
Speaker 2
2020 so let's say so basically the ending of December 24 numbers whenever an air puts it out well
Speaker 1
again they they publish every month right so are you calling
Speaker 2
but are they publishing for that month
Speaker 1
well it would say it says December X January X I mean yeah
Speaker 2
so I would say January of 25 then okay
Speaker 1
January 25 numbers right right
Speaker 2
because that's
Speaker 1
probably released in February right so January 25 what what's that number
Speaker 2
I think it's going to be below 800,000
Speaker 1
below
Speaker 2
800 so that's
Speaker 1
50% loss with that I mean I'm gonna win this bet I mean come on all right I know I say it's above 800 okay okay all right jesus you're making this really easy um I got two stinks
Speaker 2
did it's coming up yes you do I don't know that you have one you have one coming I have one coming so it'll catch each other
Speaker 1
out we'll see what happens there yeah uh okay um third one what's the
Speaker 2
third
Speaker 1
prediction that we should we should okay so I'll do this we'll do it we'll do it the predictions as bets okay okay yeah yeah all right for sure
Speaker 2
does NAR do you might agree though but we'll see what happens okay does NAR declare bankruptcy in 24
Speaker 1
no
Speaker 2
yes okay that's another
Speaker 1
bet oh man right on this is
Speaker 2
so good all right number of MOSs at the end of 2024 and how many how many are there right now there are 525 you okay let's and
Speaker 1
like I think
Speaker 2
the 522 you
Speaker 1
said right yeah so I now let let's like I mean t360 does a great job putting out the real estate almanac yeah um and that I think comes out usually they announce those numbers in march yeah right so we're not going to know until march right
Speaker 2
um number of MLS at the end of
Speaker 1
2024 right so which uh over under over under so it's 522 now um man I don't quite think we'll get below letters to there I would say 495 okay I will
Speaker 2
take the under
Speaker 1
okay gregs is 495 MLS is yeah rob under that I love
Speaker 2
this I love this what else
Speaker 1
is there let's see here um who
Speaker 2
wins the presidency
Speaker 1
oh yeah it's it's um the democrats for
Speaker 2
sure okay do uh yeah so I'll take the other do
Speaker 1
you think republicans women yes now notice I'm saying the
Speaker 2
democrats not by this yeah yeah yeah and so I'm doing the same republicans I'm saying republicans I don't know Trump's gonna be allowed to run but yeah exactly so yeah yeah yeah assuming that's an election by the way assuming there's an actual election you were
Speaker 1
you were so on fucking on branded so funny all right uh what was I was just thinking of something to hear um oh I mean it's been a tough few years and I hate to be this is you know maybe sound negative but let's just limit it to public companies yeah um do any of the public real estate companies you know you think NAR is going bankrupt but is anything major happen to um those stocks those I mean are they go are we looking at what's the back what's the back I don't know how to I was going to say do you think any of those are going to go bankrupt but that might be a no yeah
Speaker 2
none of them I don't know if there's a metric we can use there with the exception of like I don't know like a small public like a fathom I could see them suffering you know with all the downturn and lawsuits and whatever right yeah I don't really see the big
Speaker 1
ones though okay here's one um okay do any uh state associations I'm gonna leave it to state okay okay uh sever from NAR yes I say no okay
Speaker 2
I'm gonna have so many steak dinners
Speaker 1
ah that's
Speaker 2
so

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