Expenll: Trial and error is extremely important, that you don't just sit around and figure out the right thing to do. That entrapener ship is very much a hit and mis process. You throw a lot of things out there, and some things a work that you couldn't have predicted in advance. Expenll: If you're not careful, one might conclude from your world that everything is luck every oh, no, everything is random.
Nassim Taleb talks about the challenges of coping with uncertainty, predicting events, and understanding history. This wide-ranging conversation looks at investment, health, history and other areas where data play a key role. Taleb, the author of Fooled By Randomness and The Black Swan, imagines two countries, Mediocristan and Extremistan where the ability to understand the past and predict the future is radically different. Taleb's contention is that we often bring our intuition from Mediocristan for the events of Extremistan, leading us to error. The result is a tendency to be blind-sided by the unexpected.