Is There Still a Path to Avoiding Recession?

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There's roughly two jobs open for every one unemployed person in america. So the optimistic case is that you can basically cool some of that excessive demand for labor without actually having loads and loads of people ending up on the dole. The hope is that a recession can be avoided, and that if it can't be avoided, that hopefully it will be a relatively mild one.

America’s central bank has raised interest rates by three-quarters of a percentage point—its fourth rise this year. It is walking a fine line between cooling the economy and tipping the country into recession. Scientific results fundamental to more than a decade’s-worth of Alzheimer’s research may have been fabricated. For full access to print, digital and audio editions of The Economist, subscribe here www.economist.com/intelligenceoffer