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Science of Survival: The Sky is Burning

Outside Podcast

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The Pagami Creek Fire

The Pagami Creek fire started in a bog near Kawashi We Lake, California. The prediction modeling program ran 2,500 simulations taking into account historical data and the weather. According to the simulations, there was basically zero chance that the fire would reach Kawashi We lake. On September 9th, a small finger of fire slipped past the containment area; over the next few days it ballooned to 5,000 acres. It turned south, creating a flank about 7 miles long - far beyond what computer models had predicted.

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