THINKING, FAST & SLOW (DANIEL KAHNEMAN) - Listening books
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The Importance of Base Rates in Probability Assessment
The concept of "probability" is not a simple one, author says. Logicians and statisticians disagree about its meaning; some would say it has no meaning at all. People who are asked to assess probability do not try to judge probability as statisticians use the word," he writes. A question about probability or likelihood activates a mental shotgun, evoking answers to easier questions, he adds.
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