Liz Ann Sonders, Chief Investment Strategist for Charles Schwab, discusses the macro picture, behavior of asset classes, active management, Federal Reserve outlook, interpreting economic data, the yield curve and recession, the bond market vs. equity market, and lessons from the legendary late Marty Zweig.
Takeaways
* The current economic cycle is characterized by rolling recessions, with different sectors experiencing periods of growth and contraction.
* The relationship between bond yields and stock prices has historically been negative during inflationary periods and positive during periods of economic growth.
* Active management may become more important in the new era, as market conditions change and there is greater dispersion in how securities behave.
* The Federal Reserve is likely to be in pause mode with regards to rate hikes, but a significant loosening of monetary policy is not expected.
*Interpreting economic data can be challenging due to the presence of crosscurrents and conflicting indicators.
* The yield curve has historically been a reliable predictor of recessions, but the timing and duration of recessions can vary.* The bond market and equity market may have different perspectives on the current economic environment, with the bond market being more cautious.
* Lessons from Marty Zweig include the importance of understanding how monetary policy influences asset prices and the value of sentiment analysis.
Links:
2024 Outlook: https://www.schwab.com/learn/story/us-outlook-one-thing-leads-to-another
Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/LizAnnSonders
On Investing Podcast: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/on-investing/id1711806955?ls=1&mt=2
Timestamps:
00:00 Introduction and Macro Picture
03:55 A Different Environment
05:29 Behavior of Asset Classes, Opportunities
08:52 Active Management in the New Era
10:25 Federal Reserve Outlook
14:07 Interpreting Economic Data
19:03 Yield Curve and Recession
22:27 Bond Market vs. Equity Market
25:21 Lessons from Marty Zweig
