6min chapter

We Study Billionaires - The Investor’s Podcast Network cover image

TIP535: Insights from the World's Top Money Managers w/ Kristof Gleich

We Study Billionaires - The Investor’s Podcast Network

CHAPTER

Is There a Systematic Way to Recognize Luck Versus Skill?

In investing the noise to signal ratio is very high. There's a lot of randomness, there's short-term noise. What we try and do is focus on what is ultimately signal and what is noise. And for that, I studied science background, you can figure out what are some apparatus thatYou can look at that can help you, you know, reduce that noise. If you like focus in or zoom in or amplify that signal. Let me give you an example of study that we did, which I think illustrates this point really, really well. So we created something called the crystal ball portfolio. Okay, this is a hypothetical portfolio. The results of this portfolio are impossible to

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