AI Performance vs. Human Expertise

This chapter analyzes the performance of various AI models against human experts, revealing that while AI models exceed the 10th percentile, they still struggle to reach the 50th percentile benchmark. It discusses the implications of these findings, emphasizing the current limitations of AI in comparison to top human achievers while highlighting advancements in routine task performance. The conversation further explores the potential for future improvements and the importance of better scaffolding in enhancing AI capabilities.

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In this episode of The Cognitive Revolution, Nathan explores METR's groundbreaking REBench evaluation framework with Neev Parikh. We dive deep into how this new benchmark assesses AI systems' ability to perform real machine learning research tasks, from optimizing GPU kernels to fine-tuning language models. Join us for a fascinating discussion about the current capabilities of AI models like Claude 3.5 and GPT-4, and what their performance tells us about the trajectory of artificial intelligence development.

Check out METR's work:

blog post: https://metr.org/blog/2024-11-22-evaluating-r-d-capabilities-of-llms/

paper: https://metr.org/AI_R_D_Evaluation_Report.pdf

jobs: https://hiring.metr.org/

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CHAPTERS:

(00:00:00) Teaser

(00:01:04) About the Episode

(00:05:14) Introducing METR

(00:07:36) Specialization of AI Risk

(00:09:52) AI R&D vs. Autonomy

(00:12:41) Benchmark Design Choices

(00:16:04) Benchmark Design Principles (Part 1)

(00:18:54) Sponsors: GiveWell | SelectQuote

(00:21:44) Benchmark Design Principles (Part 2)

(00:22:35) AI vs. Human Evaluation

(00:26:55) Optimizing Runtimes