CNN's John Defterios asks if we had been talking a year ago today, would you have predicted the war that Putin was about to launch on Ukraine? He says he thought it was maybe 30 to 40%, no more than that, that the odds were against. Right up to the point in which Putin's forces crossed the border, defterios said, Putin was winning. But what this really illustrated was the degree to which rational actors can make deeply stupid decisions based on their own perceptions and information they are being given.

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