Political Incentives: Govern or Mobilize the Base?

On this episode of the Chuck ToddCast, Chuck examines the second week of the government shutdown, explaining why Republicans are taking most of the blame—but why it’s not an automatic win for Democrats. He breaks down the political incentives that keep both sides digging in, Trump’s efforts to punish his own voters in blue states, and the growing risk of violent confrontations with protestors. Chuck also explores how the shutdown intersects with pressing economic and foreign policy issues, from spiking consumer prices and tariff-driven disruptions in agriculture to Trump’s controversial actions involving Venezuela and the implications for international norms.

Finally, Chuck hops in the ToddCast Time Machine and digs into the longstanding impacts of the Anita Hill hearings, answers listeners' questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment and gives his college football update.

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Timeline:

(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)

00:00 Introduction

01:30 Government shutdown extends into second week 

02:30 Republicans getting more blame, but not a slam dunk for Dems 

03:45 The political incentives are to dig in, rather than compromise 

05:30 Trump is punishing his own voters in blue states 

07:15 Government employees set to start missing paychecks 

08:15 Mike Johnson is jamming the senate 

09:45 Senate Republicans have been forced into tough votes 

11:30 Democrats will have to get to yes at some point 

12:30 Stephen Miller's language should be alarming to judiciary 

13:30 Trump is trying to incite a violent confrontation with protestors 

15:15 Making shutdown fight about healthcare was signal to moderate voters 

18:15 In prior six months, prices for consumer goods have spiked 

19:15 Retailers announcing substantial price increases due to tariffs 

21:00 52% drop in soybean exports to China 

21:45 Trump floating "socialist" style policies to bail out farmers 

23:15 Japan elects a conservative as first female prime minister 

25:00 Trump makes dubious claims in defense of striking Venezuelan boats 

26:30 Boat attacks are denying due process to foreign citizens 

28:15 We're giving a permission slip to thugs & dictators around the world 

29:30 Venezuela would be a bigger story if not for the shutdown 

30:45 Nominee for Virginia DA, Jay Jones has disturbing texts released 

33:15 Candidate apologizes after texts were made public 

35:15 What Jay Jones says was disqualifying 

37:30 Nobody is being held accountable for faulty character 

39:45 Polarization may be so strong that scandals don't matter

41:30 ToddCast Time Machine 

41:45 October 11th, 1991 - Anita Hill testified before judiciary committee 

42:30 There were no women on the senate judiciary committee 

43:30 Hill's testimony was massively consequential for gender equality 

45:30 Clarence Thomas was being fast tracked to the Supreme Court 

48:00 Anita Hill allegations surface publicly on October 6th 

49:00 Hill provides graphic testimony of inappropriate behavior by Thomas 

50:45 Hill had a lot to lose and was afraid 

51:45 It was the first time sexual harassment entered public zeitgeist 

53:00 Gender, race and ideology mixed into toxic political stew 

53:30 Senate confirms Thomas in bipartisan vote 5 days later 

55:45 Anita Hill has never forgiven Joe Biden for the hearing 

57:15 Hill hearings supercharged women's entry into politics 

1:00:00 Ask Chuck 

1:00:15 Was Hegseth's speech a step towards a presidential campaign? 

1:02:45 Dangers of governing with an "ends justify the means" philosophy?

 1:05:45 College football update

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