Welcome to the Machine with Stuart Sopp of Current & Anastasia Amoroso of iCapital
RiskReversal Pod
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The Fed's Neutral Rate Estimates: Are We Going to Avoid Recession?
Scott Wopner: Recession is gonna come sooner or later. If it doesn't happen in 2023, we had this extreme selling into year end that discounted recession that didn't happen. It's a hard scenario now because are we gonna be fixated on the 2024 recession? He says one of the most important indicators to look at whether we're heading into a recession is just how tight the policy is relative to the neutral rate.
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