Clay Graubard and Robert de Neufville on forecasting the war in Ukraine
80k After Hours
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Strategic Nuclear Weapons in the War in Ukraine?
E ye, robert, how were you thinking about this kind of ine in the first few weeks of ofthe innasion? Ys, so, before i was writing my forecasting, i worked for years at the global catastrophic risk institute. And one of the most plausible pasts to global catastrophe is a nuclear exchange. I looked particularly at close call incidents just for a variety of nuclear incidents. But there's a lot of kind of escpotentia esclatory movements that you wouldn't necessarily think of.
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