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Reevaluating Market Misjudgments and Lessons Learned from Tech Stocks and Regional Banks
The chapter explores the speaker's insights on errors made in analyzing the tech stock rally and regional banks, highlighting the lessons learned from their lack of understanding in adapting to market dynamics and technological advancements.
"When trading, are you more interested in being right, or are you more interested in making money? And I ultimately just look at it like ‘I just want to make money, and…make the best returns I can’, and so therefore I need to stay open to different ideas.” - Kevin Muir
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This week’s episode features another one of Chase’s greatest mentors, Kevin Muir. Kevin is a prototype of the kind of investor we’re trying to highlight on this podcast. He’s a markets scientist who isn’t afraid to explore new ideas and find himself wrong after that process. His open-mindedness has led him to some great theories that we dig deeper into for this episode.
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Timestamps:
-- (00:01) - Intro
-- (03:19)- Kevin’s Charity: Covenant House
-- (04:39) -Why Kevin loves the markets
-- (05:39)- James Aiken’s philosophy on overload
-- (10:56)- How Kevin discovered MMT wasn’t the stupidest thing he ever heard
-- (15:10)- Tim Urban and the “high rung” approach to ideas
--(17:41)- How do you intentionally stay open to new ideas?
--(23:55)- Systematic Investing Flows
--(30:01)- Tried and True Indicators can’t always help (Yield Curve Inversion)
--(39:25)- Must Read Books for Traders
--(45:27)- Between Two Pines
--(53:25)- Simple morning rituals set you up for a full day of markets, and you should adjust your reading to the macro environment
--(56:18)- Different life priorities led Kevin from working at a bank to operating the Macro Tourist
--(1:01:43)- “New techs” cause mini-rolling bubbles and never underestimate the stupidity of regional bank CEOs
--(1:07:14)- Plugs
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This Episode's Charity:
The Covenant House of Toronto aims to serve youth who are homeless, trafficked, or at risk. They’re located in the heart of Toronto and offer youth ages 16-24 essential services such as medical care, food, and shelter.
Kevin and Chase raised $100 for charity this week!
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Referenced in the Show:
What’s Our Problem?: A Self-Help Book for Societies by Tim Urban
Is Inflation Ending: Are You Ready? by A. Gary Shilling and Kiril Sokoloff
The Logical Trader: Applying a Method to the Madness by Mark Fisher
The Alchemy of Finance by George Soros
Kevin’s Interviews of Jim Leitner on The Market Huddle: Check out this episode’s blog post
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Guest Plugs:
Kevin’s The Macro Tourist Substack
Kevin’s X: https://twitter.com/kevinmuir
Kevin’s email: kevin@themacrotourist.com
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Pinecone Macro Research aims to provide unique, well researched analysis of the global markets using a macro framework. Find us here: www.pineconemacro.com
Follow us and the show on Twitter: @PineconeMacro & @TaylorMadeMacro
Subscribe on Substack: https://substack.com/@pineconemacroresearch
Bulwark Capital Management: https://bulwarkcapitalmgmt.com/
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Disclaimer:
The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor
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Listen to the best highlights from the podcasts you love and dive into the full episode