Scenario planning as sensemaking tool

With the so many prevailing stories of uncertainty around for everyone, our roles as educators supporting young people and colleagues to know how to navigate it can be overwhelming! As Thea Snow said on a recent episode, feeling safe in uncertainty is hard. But this is where perhaps we can all learn from the wisdom of those with expertise in futures work and facilitating spaces to explore desirable regenerative futures. Bill Sharpe (http://www.billsharpe.uk/) is one such expert, who has been helping teams in all sectors of organisations and society find co-ordinated ways of managing innovation, creating transformational change that has a chance of succeeding, and ways of seeing the future in the present. He developed the adapted version of the Three Horizons framework as a method for futures studies and practice with Anthony Hodgson, Andrew Curry and Graham Leicester.

Bill was previously a Research Director at Hewlett-Packard's corporate labs in Bristol, UK. He joined HP Laboratories in 1985, becoming one of the first HP Laboratory Directors outside the US. Early work in Bristol provided the impetus for him to set up the Personal Systems Lab that led HP's early work in the emerging world of smart consumer products, mobile computing and digital imaging. Bill then took an assignment in the USA for two years to lead the Internet Solutions Operation of HP's Laserjet Bueiness through the transition to Web. Back in Bristol, Bill set up new mechanisms for coupling HP Labs to the creation of HP's new information appliance businesses. This work led him to co-found the Appliance Studio in 1999 as an independent company, delivering innovation to a wider commercial audience. Having created a range of new product ideas for clients, in particular new business in digital signage for Steelcase Inc, the Studio launched its own start-up Lucid Signs. With the sale of Lucid Signs, Bill moved on to focus entirely on personal research and consulting. Early in his career, Bill took an active role in UK government research through his work with the Science and Engineering Research Council (SERC) and Advanced IT (Alvey) programs. As a member of the Programme Directorate at Alvey - a programme designed to foster R&D between industry and academia - Bill co-coordinated research into intelligent knowledge-based systems.

Bill is a highly accomplished practitioner in futures techniques and systems change, and now works with Future Stewards (https://futurestewards.com/), the International Futures Forum (https://www.internationalfuturesforum.com/) and H3Uni (https://www.h3uni.org/) to pioneer new approaches to futures, systems thinking, and transformative innovation. He is the author of Three Horizons: The Patterning of Hope (https://www.triarchypress.net/three-horizons.html) and Economies of Life: Patterns of Health and Wealth (https://www.triarchypress.net/economies-of-life.html).

Additional info about Three horizons: A pathways practice for transformation - Three Horizons is a simple and intuitive framework for thinking about the future. The framework explains how people often manage to disagree so violently about their visions of the future and how to achieve them - and it offers a practical way to begin constructive conversations about the future at home, in organisations and in society at large. The three horizons are about much, much more than simply stretching our thinking to embrace the short, medium and long term. They offer a co-ordinated way of managing innovation, a way of creating transformational change that has a chance of succeeding, a way of dealing with uncertainty and a way of seeing the future in the present.

Kate Raworth's excellent description of 3H: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_5KfRQJqpPU

Jonathan Rowson's great explanation of the H2 minus vortex: https://perspecteeva.substack.com/p/deactivating-the-h2minus-vortex

Social Links

LinkedIn: @bill-sharpe - https://www.linkedin.com/in/bill-sharpe-6689