Brains as prediction machines

In this episode, Andy sits down with Owen Fitzpatrick, a psychologist, speaker, and author of Inner Propaganda: Leading Hearts and Minds through Turbulent Times. Owen has spent close to 30 years studying how beliefs form and change, interviewing people everywhere from North Korea to Rwanda to Afghanistan. His thesis is unsettling: our brains do not simply take in facts and reach objective conclusions. They build a story we then experience as reality.

Owen and Andy work through what that means on real projects. You'll hear how a warning from a colleague can quietly harden into a conviction about a teammate, and how Bayesian reasoning gives you a way out. You'll learn Owen's five types of truth, how to tell courageous conviction from dangerous denial, and what leaders can actually make stable when they cannot promise a stable outcome. Owen also explains why pushing harder for buy-in is often the very reason people resist, and how an antifragile identity helps teams face uncertainty like AI without denial or panic.

If you're looking for a fresh way to think about belief, influence, and leading through turbulent times, this episode is for you!

• "We all live in that world where we think we're the one person that isn't the victim of propaganda, and my point or my thesis is we're all victims of our own inner propaganda."
• "We're not necessarily just convinced by others. We convince ourselves."
• "Because I think when we say, 'I'm no good at something,' we lock ourselves into it."
• "Well, if you're not great at communicating with people, get great."
• "Most of the time our beliefs just create a sort of a reality for us, and that reality can help us or harm us."
• "So our brains are prediction machines."
• "Whenever we talk about belief, believing in your ability to succeed in the future is critical if you want to succeed in the future, but that doesn't mean you deny the present."
• "It, it's not that we think negatively, it's we believe negatively, and we see the world through those lenses."
• "So I think we want to be able to challenge our beliefs and build a bit more and get more comfortable with uncertainty away from the table, but when we're at the table with our team, that's when we bring the certainty."
• "We like the idea that we are making this decision of our own free will."
• "And when you look at what a belief is, a belief is an idea we feel certain about, and that word feel is the most important word of that sentence."
• "It's okay to believe less in certain things. It's okay to believe more in certain things. It's okay to believe better."

• 00:00 Introduction
• 02:29 Start of Interview
• 02:40 The Belief About Himself Owen Took Too Long to Update
• 05:56 A Sweaty Debate Speech and What Came After
• 08:28 Not Good at Something Is a Skill Gap, Not an Identity
• 09:45 The Belief Growth Mindset
• 12:55 The Sandra Story: When a Warning Becomes a Conviction
• 14:07 Why the Brain Craves Cognitive Closure
• 17:15 Using Bayesian Reasoning to Loosen a Belief
• 21:00 Melanie Perkins and Alan Mulally: Conviction or Denial?
• 21:36 The Five Types of Truth
• 26:24 Just Because It Is Your Truth Does Not Make It True
• 28:41 Where Objective Truth Actually Belongs
• 31:47 What "Leadership Is Propaganda" Does Not Mean
• 34:45 Why Change Management and AI Adoption Stall
• 36:30 Why Owen Chose Propaganda Over Self-Talk
• 37:57 Do I Believe It Because It Makes Me Look Good?
• 38:49 Answering the AI Question Without Denial or Hype
• 40:15 Building an Antifragile Identity
• 44:27 Certainty Is Contagious, and When to Change Course
• 45:20 What Leaders Can Make Stable in a Volatile Period
• 47:45 Control What You Can, Influence What You Can, Accept the Rest
• 51:01 When Pushing for Buy-In Creates the Resistance
• 52:45 You're Asking the Wrong Question About Persuasion
• 54:30 Reading the Person Before You Make the Ask
• 57:30 Helping Kids Hold Strong Beliefs Without Contempt
• 1:01:46 End of Interview
• 1:02:15 Andy Comments After the Interview
• 1:05:09 Outtakes

You can learn more about Owen and his work at InnerPropaganda.com.

For more learning on this topic, check out:

• Episode 370 with Chantel Prat. One of the smartest, clearest, and funniest books on the brain, and why all of it matters for how you lead.
• Episodes 59 and 60 with Cathy Davidson. She explains how the brain science of attention changes everything.
• Episode 32 with Brad Kolar. A look at the direct implications of neuroscience for leadership.
• Owen's TED Talk, available here on YouTube.

You can chat directly with PMeLa, the podcast's AI persona, to get episode recommendations and answers to your project management and leadership questions. Visit PeopleAndProjectsPodcast.com/PMeLa to chat with her.

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Thank you for joining me for this episode of The People and Projects Podcast!

Talent Triangle: Power Skills

Topics: Leadership, Belief, Persuasion, Influence, Uncertainty, Change Management, Growth Mindset, Psychological Reactance, Buy-In, Artificial Intelligence, Resilience, Project Management

The following music was used for this episode:

Music: The Fantastical Ferret by Tim Kulig License (CC BY 4.0): https://filmmusic.io/standard-license

Music: Funny by Frank Schroeter License (CC BY 4.0): https://filmmusic.io/standard-license