Speaker 4
Okay and we've spent about a week now talking to clients, business leaders, officials and the election in the US has come up let's just say more than once. So what are people's expectations here in Asia?
Speaker 1
Yeah the US It's very hard to call, and the potential impact on Asia is even harder to predict. But I think on balance, if we get a Biden victory, it will be broadly a continuation of the status quo in terms of its impact on Asia. If we get a Trump win, then it would introduce much higher uncertainties because there is the risk of a potential tariff shock. And we also don't quite know at this point what would be the outcome of the Trump's agenda on U .S. rates, policy, inflation, growth, the dollar, all of which has impact on Asia. But I would say that suppose there is a tariff shock. So a 60% tariff imposed on China and a 10% generalized tariff across all of Asia, then one certain demand for Chinese goods is going to completely disappear in the U .S. So the Chinese sellers will have to look for new markets and the U .S. buyers will have to look for And both of this is going to take time. So at least initially we could have a volume shock out of China and perhaps some price spike in the US. Asia as a region probably will have growth shaped by up to 100 basis points upfront and the risk of retaliation is going to increase. But at the end of the day, the size of the trade shock is going to depend on the tariff rate. It's going to depend on the manner in which the tariff is being implemented. So is it going to be upfront and immediate, or is it going to be in tranches and over time? And of course, it also depends China's response. We do think that China would try to bid for opportunities to negotiate with the Trump administration. So, at least initially, the response could be more targeted, it could be calibrated, it could be reactive and definitely non -escalatory, at least in the initial phase. So the question is how does one hatch this scenario? In the portfolio, we do like gold. I mean, we do think that gold is a good diversifier, but specifically for Asia, being long the US dollar against the CNY would make for good hedge because this position also provides a carry of about 2 .5 % to 3% per annum. Now in the 2018 round, for example, the CNY did depreciate by around 6%. And in terms of stock market impact, when we look at the MSCI sector, we do think that China hardware and consumer electronics would be the sector that will be the hardest hit. A lot of that is going to be apple -related products. And the final point that I will make about this US election is that if we do get sharp heights in tariffs, there will certainly be a response among Asian corporates and also the multinationals that is operating out of the region. There will be an intensification of the supply chain reset as multinationals will want to avoid direct hit. And the other thing is that the Asian economies will be very motivated to deepen regional integration of trade and production in order to find work around against specific protectionistic measures. And this will be positive for infrastructure as well as K -PAG's driven growth in emerging Asia. So follow the FDI money. Okay.