If Iowa flips, national consequences

In this episode of the Chuck ToddCast, Chuck breaks down the mounting political fallout from a string of fatal and controversial shootings by federal immigration agents in Minneapolis, including the killing of ICU nurse Alex Pretti—an incident that has sparked protests, outrage, and deep questions about federal law-enforcement use of force. Bystander video and independent analysis have sharply contradicted official claims that Pretti posed a threat, amplifying criticism from local officials and national figures alike while the Trump administration has scrambled to contain the damage by removing the Border Patrol commander and sending veteran immigration official Tom Homan to Minneapolis to calm tensions.

As Republicans in Congress publicly wrestle with how to respond—and some distance themselves from the administration’s actions—Chuck explores how Trump’s repeated emphasis on which voters supported him personally, rather than addressing the substance of the crisis, is complicating the situation politically. With Minneapolis emerging as a political disaster for Trump, the episode also looks at how Trump’s handling of Kristi Noem and broader GOP infighting could create openings for Democrats, especially as concern grows over civil liberties, federal overreach, and the credibility of government narratives in the face of widespread skepticism and media scrutiny. 

Finally, Chuck updates his ToddCast Top 5 governor’s seats most likely to flip in 2026, weighs in on the massive looming cuts to the staff at the Washington Post and answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment.

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Timeline:

(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)

00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction

01:00 Trump attends Iowa event with “affordability message”

01:45 Trump begins to try to walk back from chaos in Minneapolis

02:30 Greg Bovino removed from border patrol role in Minneapolis

03:15 Trump keeps highlighting that Renee Good’s parents voted for him

04:15 Trump sent Tom Homan to Minneapolis to try & calm things down

05:30 Republicans in congress speak out after killing of Alex Pretti

06:30 Trump signals support for Kristi Noem, but could change his mind

07:30 Resentment from Senate R’s over some cabinet secretaries

09:15 Political infighting could become contagious but Trump will back Miller

11:00 Trump is playing political cleanup, but not firing Noem is a mistake

13:00 Not firing Noem would be a political gift for Democrats

14:00 Trump’s trade policy is creating trade deals for other countries, not us

14:45 Minneapolis creates permission slip for Republicans to distance themselves 

15:15 Trump’s stop in Iowa was supposed to be a pivot

16:15 Consumer confidence shows the public behaving like it’s a recession

17:00 Consumer confidence lowest since 2014, worse than during pandemic

18:00 Public doubts the job market & job security

20:00 Trump claims inflation is over, that’s not what the public is feeling

21:15 Iowa ranks 50th in nation for economic growth, worst since the 80’s

22:00 Tariffs have devastated Iowa farmers

23:30 If Iowa goes blue, Democrats will win the house and senate

24:15 Trump’s policies have hurt Iowa more than other states

25:00 Trump’s economic message isn’t resonating

26:00 Trump really messed up his gun politics 

27:30 Trump will throw anybody under the bus to protect himself

34:45 ToddCast Top 5 governor’s seats most likely to flip

36:00 #1 Kansas

37:45 #2 Iowa

40:00 #3 Michigan

42:15 #4 Arizona #5 Nevada

44:30 The Washington Post announces major cuts to staff

45:15 Hard to understand what Bezos’s vision is for the Post

47:00 How can you be a local paper & not cover the community?

48:15 Post is losing $100m/year but Bezos’s burns tons of cash

48:45 Amazon set $75 million on fire for the Melania documentary

50:30 If Bezos wanted the Post to succeed he could have invested in it

52:45 Bezos should sell the Post rather than gutting it

54:45 The Post editorial page has been diminished under Bezos

56:30 Hopefully Bezos changes course

57:30 Ask Chuck

57:45 How long will this dark period of American history last?

1:04:00 At what point does a blatant lie from a politician qualify as fraud?

1:06:30 Chance that an Ossoff win could catapult him to nomination?

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