6min chapter

Forward Guidance cover image

Nathan Tankus on The "Pozsar Moment" In Shadow Banking

Forward Guidance

CHAPTER

The Fed's Monetary Policy Operating Framework

The Fed's current system, we have the operational target is short term interest rates. The intermediate target is financial conditions, you raise interest rates to try to tighten financial conditions. And then that is supposed to affect spending in the economy and affecting spending is meant to affect employment and inflation - but it hasn't worked so far. Inflation is lower for various reasons; unions are crushed because they can't get out of their own way. But Volcker plays his role safely when he feels comfortable with how low interest rates will go. It doesn't really know what its going to be until it gets there.

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