4min chapter

Episode 285: A Year in Review

The Rational Reminder Podcast

notes

CHAPTER

Understanding Miscalibration and Overconfidence in Future-oriented Decision Making

This chapter delves into the concept of miscalibration as a form of overconfidence, exploring how individuals tend to overestimate their abilities and the precision of their predictions about the future. The discussion highlights the prevalence of optimism and overconfidence in various domains such as household finance, financial markets, and managerial behavior.

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Transcript

Episode notes

It’s hard to believe, but today’s episode marks our fifth annual year-in-review episode — where we look back at some of our favourite conversations and takeaways from the past year! If there’s one overarching theme that stood out amongst our guests in 2023 it would be the power of purposeful decision-making to impact our future selves. Tuning in, you’ll hear our guests' remarkable views on the topic, from the power of regret when it comes to long-term decisions to the ‘hidden partner’ that accompanies us in all our decision-making. Another key theme that emerged is how the role of financial advisors is evolving. Key insights include why your financial advisor should collaborate with other advisors, why trust is essential, and how to prepare your children for wealth. We wrap things up with reflective tips on how to identify what your true goals are with a profound lesson on why setting your own scoreboard is essential. Tune in as we share some of our favourite moments from the past year and look back at the incredible guests we’ve had on the show in 2023!

Key Points From This Episode:

Our year with the Rational Reminder community: 23 in 23 reading challenge, memorable meetups, live recordings, a shoutout to our community moderators, and more. (0:00:19)
Looking back at our conversation with Charles Ellis and Burton Malkiel on why money management is a loser’s game and navigating market efficiency. (0:08:42)
Pim Van Vliet’s insights on the evidence supporting higher expected returns related to certain stock characteristics. (0:16:19)

Discussing the relevance (and irrelevance) of dividends and why people tend to view dividends as particularly special, with Professor Samuel Hartzmark. (0:19:42)
Our conversation with Will Goetzmann on the value of very long-term data and why historical data is still relevant today. (0:24:58)
Nobel laureate, Robert Merton’s insights on putting together a long-term asset mix and taking into account your time horizon. (0:32:35)
Highlights from our conversation with Professor Francisco Gomes on how asset allocation should (and should not) change over the lifecycle. (0:39:14)
Our second interview with David Blanchett on how regret informs our long-term decisions and Daniel Pink’s insights on optimizing for future regret. (0:43:58)
Hear from Charles Ellis on the most under-appreciated action that every investor should take to be more successful. (0:50:50)
Making decisions on personal finance and John Cambell’s insights on how household beliefs tend to differ. (0:51:53)
Professor Ralph Keeney on why decision-making is the only purposeful way you can influence anything in your life. (0:54:54)
Input from Cass Sunstein on the extensive research he’s done on decision-making and how acquiring more information can help your decisions. (0:59:25)
We hear from Professor Eric Johnson about the ‘hidden partner’ that accompanies us when we make decisions and Cass Sunstein explains when we should update our beliefs. (01:03:09)
Professor James Choi shares his profound insights on why financial decisions are not always explained by economic theory. (01:10:26)
Unpacking the effect of overconfidence on our decision-making with Itzhak Ben-David, along with his key ideas on miscalibration. (01:12:53)
Answering the question “How good are we at understanding our future selves?” with Hal Hershfield. (01:17:20)
Our conversation with Meir Statman on the third generation of behavioural finance and what that means for decision-making and advice. (01:21:13)
Dr. Preet Banerjee’s research and insight on the value of having a financial plan. (01:23:48)
Talking with YouTuber, Darin Soat, about the struggle to find high-quality financial information online and understanding YouTube as an entertainment-first platform. (01:25:02)
Harold Geller on how to determine whether your advisor is properly understanding you and Robert Merton’s thoughts on how he views the role of financial advisors. (01:28:27)
We hear from Dr. Preet Banerjee on the business of financial advice and how it has changed over time. (01:35:02)
Victor Haghani and James White on the topic of intergenerational billionaires and why there are fewer than you might expect. (01:39:21)
An update from Rob Carrick on the state of financial planning for the average Canadian in 2023. (01:44:09)
Juhani Linnainmaa unpacks the impact of financial advisors on decision-making and the challenges of choosing a financial advisor. (01:48:48)
Dr. James Grubman on identifying a financial advisor who understands the importance of Wealth 3.0, why collaboration is key, and how to prepare children for wealth. (01:51:21)
A final takeaway from Shane Parrish on taking stock of your year and how to determine what your true goals are. (02:02:28)