Understanding Miscalibration and Overconfidence in Future-oriented Decision Making

It’s hard to believe, but today’s episode marks our fifth annual year-in-review episode — where we look back at some of our favourite conversations and takeaways from the past year! If there’s one overarching theme that stood out amongst our guests in 2023 it would be the power of purposeful decision-making to impact our future selves. Tuning in, you’ll hear our guests' remarkable views on the topic, from the power of regret when it comes to long-term decisions to the ‘hidden partner’ that accompanies us in all our decision-making. Another key theme that emerged is how the role of financial advisors is evolving. Key insights include why your financial advisor should collaborate with other advisors, why trust is essential, and how to prepare your children for wealth. We wrap things up with reflective tips on how to identify what your true goals are with a profound lesson on why setting your own scoreboard is essential. Tune in as we share some of our favourite moments from the past year and look back at the incredible guests we’ve had on the show in 2023!

Key Points From This Episode:

• Our year with the Rational Reminder community: 23 in 23 reading challenge, memorable meetups, live recordings, a shoutout to our community moderators, and more. (0:00:19)

• Looking back at our conversation with Charles Ellis and Burton Malkiel on why money management is a loser’s game and navigating market efficiency. (0:08:42)

• Pim Van Vliet’s insights on the evidence supporting higher expected returns related to certain stock characteristics. (0:16:19)

• Discussing the relevance (and irrelevance) of dividends and why people tend to view dividends as particularly special, with Professor Samuel Hartzmark. (0:19:42)

• Our conversation with Will Goetzmann on the value of very long-term data and why historical data is still relevant today. (0:24:58)

• Nobel laureate, Robert Merton’s insights on putting together a long-term asset mix and taking into account your time horizon. (0:32:35)

• Highlights from our conversation with Professor Francisco Gomes on how asset allocation should (and should not) change over the lifecycle. (0:39:14)

• Our second interview with David Blanchett on how regret informs our long-term decisions and Daniel Pink’s insights on optimizing for future regret. (0:43:58)

• Hear from Charles Ellis on the most under-appreciated action that every investor should take to be more successful. (0:50:50)

• Making decisions on personal finance and John Cambell’s insights on how household beliefs tend to differ. (0:51:53)

• Professor Ralph Keeney on why decision-making is the only purposeful way you can influence anything in your life. (0:54:54)

• Input from Cass Sunstein on the extensive research he’s done on decision-making and how acquiring more information can help your decisions. (0:59:25)

• We hear from Professor Eric Johnson about the ‘hidden partner’ that accompanies us when we make decisions and Cass Sunstein explains when we should update our beliefs. (01:03:09)

• Professor James Choi shares his profound insights on why financial decisions are not always explained by economic theory. (01:10:26)

• Unpacking the effect of overconfidence on our decision-making with Itzhak Ben-David, along with his key ideas on miscalibration. (01:12:53)

• Answering the question “How good are we at understanding our future selves?” with Hal Hershfield. (01:17:20)

• Our conversation with Meir Statman on the third generation of behavioural finance and what that means for decision-making and advice. (01:21:13)

• Dr. Preet Banerjee’s research and insight on the value of having a financial plan. (01:23:48)

• Talking with YouTuber, Darin Soat, about the struggle to find high-quality financial information online and understanding YouTube as an entertainment-first platform. (01:25:02)

• Harold Geller on how to determine whether your advisor is properly understanding you and Robert Merton’s thoughts on how he views the role of financial advisors. (01:28:27)

• We hear from Dr. Preet Banerjee on the business of financial advice and how it has changed over time. (01:35:02)

• Victor Haghani and James White on the topic of intergenerational billionaires and why there are fewer than you might expect. (01:39:21)

• An update from Rob Carrick on the state of financial planning for the average Canadian in 2023. (01:44:09)

• Juhani Linnainmaa unpacks the impact of financial advisors on decision-making and the challenges of choosing a financial advisor. (01:48:48)

• Dr. James Grubman on identifying a financial advisor who understands the importance of Wealth 3.0, why collaboration is key, and how to prepare children for wealth. (01:51:21)

• A final takeaway from Shane Parrish on taking stock of your year and how to determine what your true goals are. (02:02:28)

Links From Today’s Episode:

Episode 234: Prof. Robert C. Merton — https://rationalreminder.ca/podcast/234

Episode 236: Harold Geller — https://rationalreminder.ca/podcast/236

Episode 238: Prof. Ralph Keeney — https://rationalreminder.ca/podcast/238

Episode 240: Prof. Eric J. Johnson — https://rationalreminder.ca/podcast/240

Episode 244: Charles D. Ellis — https://rationalreminder.ca/podcast/244

Episode 246: Daniel H. Pink — https://rationalreminder.ca/podcast/246

Episode 248: Prof. William Goetzmann — https://rationalreminder.ca/podcast/248

Episode 250: Prof. John Y. Campbell — https://rationalreminder.ca/podcast/250

Episode 252: Prof. Burton Malkiel — https://rationalreminder.ca/podcast/252

Episode 254: David Blanchett — https://rationalreminder.ca/podcast/254

Episode 256: Prof. Hal Hershfield — https://rationalreminder.ca/podcast/256

Episode 258: Prof. Meir Statman — https://rationalreminder.ca/podcast/258

Episode 260: Prof. James Choi — https://rationalreminder.ca/podcast/260

Episode 262: Prof. Francisco Gomes — https://rationalreminder.ca/podcast/262

Episode 264: Pim van Vliet — https://rationalreminder.ca/podcast/264

Episode 266: Prof. Cass Sunstein — https://rationalreminder.ca/podcast/266

Episode 268: Itzhak Ben-David — https://rationalreminder.ca/podcast/268

Episode 269: Preet Banerjee — https://rationalreminder.ca/podcast/269

Episode 270: Victor Haghani and James White — https://rationalreminder.ca/podcast/270

Episode 272: Rob Carrick — https://rationalreminder.ca/podcast/272

Episode 273: Professor Samuel Hartzmark — https://rationalreminder.ca/podcast/273

Episode 275: Live from Future Proof 2023 with Hal Hershfield — https://rationalreminder.ca/podcast/275

Episode 276: Darin Soat — https://rationalreminder.ca/podcast/276

Episode 278: Juhani Linnainmaa — https://rationalreminder.ca/podcast/278

Episode 280: Shane Parrish — https://rationalreminder.ca/podcast/280

Episode 282: James Grubman — 

Episode 224: Scott Cederberg — https://rationalreminder.ca/podcast/224

Winning the Loser's Game: Timeless Strategies for Successful Investing — https://www.amazon.com/Winning-Losers-Game-Strategies-Successful/dp/1264258461

A Random Walk Down Wall Street: The Time-Tested Strategy for Successful Investing — https://www.amazon.com/Random-Walk-Down-Wall-Street/dp/0393358380

Your Future Self: How to Make Tomorrow Better Today — https://www.halhershfield.com/yourfutureself A Wealth of Well-Being: A Holistic Approach to Behavioral Finance — https://www.amazon.com/Wealth-Well-Being-Holistic-Approach-Behavioral/dp/1394249675 Strangers in Paradise: How Families Adapt to Wealth Across Generations — https://www.amazon.com/Strangers-Paradise-Families-Wealth-Generations/dp/0615894356 Wealth 3.0: The Future of Family Wealth Advising — https://www.amazon.com/Wealth-3-0-Future-Family-Advising/dp/B0C9SHFSGM

Clear Thinking: Turning Ordinary Moments into Extraordinary Results — https://www.amazon.com/Clear-Thinking-Turning-Ordinary-Extraordinary/dp/0593086112

30 Lessons for Living — https://www.karlpillemer.com/books/30-lessons-for-living/

Rational Reminder on iTunes — https://itunes.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-rational-reminder-podcast/id1426530582. Rational Reminder Website — https://rationalreminder.ca/ 

Rational Reminder on Instagram — https://www.instagram.com/rationalreminder/

Rational Reminder on X — https://twitter.com/RationalRemind

Rational Reminder on YouTube — https://www.youtube.com/channel/

Rational Reminder Email — info@rationalreminder.caBenjamin Felix — https://www.pwlcapital.com/author/benjamin-felix/ 

Benjamin on X — https://twitter.com/benjaminwfelix

Benjamin on LinkedIn — https://www.linkedin.com/in/benjaminwfelix/

Cameron Passmore — https://www.pwlcapital.com/profile/cameron-passmore/

Cameron on X — https://twitter.com/CameronPassmore

Cameron on LinkedIn — https://www.linkedin.com/in/cameronpassmore/

Mark McGrath on LinkedIn — https://www.linkedin.com/in/markmcgrathcfp/

Mark McGrath on X — https://twitter.com/MarkMcGrathCFP