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#78 – Danny Hernandez on forecasting and the drivers of AI progress
80,000 Hours Podcast
Is the Slow Progress Viewpoint a Good Idea?
i think they multiply. Wouldn't we have known that they multiply before measuring compute and measuring algarithmic innovation? Cause isn't the argument that they multiply, just that oneis how much you can do with the other? And ye, i think that another thing that's like, maybe interesting that we didn't talk about is, like, the slow progress viewpoint. Some people look at what's been happening an there usike, this looks slow to me. We are not getting throughs that a meaningful at any much frequency, like getting a new transformer every six months. I don't know. Over this like, five year period, it starts to feel more like a thing you
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