Reflections on Future Intelligence and Critiques of Conclusions

“The amount of human attention in the world is finite. We have 24 hours in the day, some of which we need to spend paying attention to eating, sleeping and meeting our other needs. The attention during the remaining hours of most people in the world is taken up by having to earn an income and by consuming goods and services, leaving relatively little time for attention to be freely allocated. A hard limit on available attention also exists for humanity as a whole—as I argued earlier, we are headed for peak population, at which point we will no longer be increasing the total amount of potentially available attention by adding more people.”

Welcome back to another episode of Made You Think! In this episode, we're covering The World After Capital by Albert Wenger. We'll explore the transition from the Industrial Age to the Knowledge Age, the new scarcity of attention, and the potential for widespread societal change. Join us in this futuristic discussion as we ponder how digital technologies are reshaping our world and the future of human civilization.

We cover a wide range of topics including:

• The shift from capital to attention as a scarce resource
• How we're heading into a future that's non-linear
• Why "everyone needs to" is not a practical solution
• The role AI may play in replacing jobs and technological adaptation
• Do we agree with the author's proposed solutions?

And much more. Please enjoy, and make sure to follow Nat, Neil, and Adil on Twitter and share your thoughts on the episode.

Links from the Episode:

Mentioned in the Show:

• Duolingo (4:47)
• The New York Times (5:25)
• Codementor (29:47)
• Cursor (29:55)
• Starlink (44:43)
• WWDC24 (45:06)
• Outside the System (53:15)
• Tucker Carlson and Bukele (53:25)
• Zeekr 001 (1:01:12)
• Outside the System: Crypto Confidential episode (1:05:56)
• DeepMind (1:08:25)
• Inflection AI (1:09:13)

Books Mentioned:

• The World After Capital (Adil's Book Notes)
• Homo Deus (0:14) (Book Episode) (Nat’s Book Notes) (Adil's Book Notes)
• Novacene (0:21) (Book Episode)
• The Beginning of Infinity (0:29) (Book Episode) (Nat’s Book Notes)
• The War on Normal People (0:35) (Book Episode) (Nat's Book Notes)
• Into the Amazon (7:52) (Book Episode)
• The Coming Wave (1:08:04)

People Mentioned:

• Albert Wenger
• Yuval Noah Harari (0:13)
• Andrew Yang (0:35) (Book Episode)
• George R. R. Martin (18:00)
• John Gray (44:25)
• Francisco Franco (58:21)
• Mustafa Suleyman(1:08:25)

Show Topics:

(0:00) In today’s episode, we’re diving into The World After Capital by Albert Wenger. We kick off the episode by reflecting on previous episodes and reads we’ve had with books that debates what is coming after the current industrial era. What’s next for human civilization? 

(3:57) One of the book's strengths is its historical framing. While Wenger presents the situation well, his solutions and theories about the future were hard to fully agree with. 

(8:34) Nat, Neil, and Adil explain how Wenger sets up the big picture. He argues that we’re on the cusp of a major historical shift where we can no longer predict the next step due to fundamental changes. In each era, a scarcity drives human behavior. Today, Wenger contends that the finite resource is attention. 

(10:55) Have we shifted the problem from capital to attention by untethering currency from a hard asset? Leading companies like Microsoft and Google are powerful not because of their capital but because they control our attention. 

(14:57) Attention vs. time. Wenger refers to the "job loop" where time is exchanged for money. With the internet, you can create things with no marginal cost, selling without a major time investment.

(16:42) Aside from attention, what other contenders do we have as the next scarce resource?

(19:21) The book's purpose is not just to observe shifting scarcity but to highlight how each shift has led to widespread violence. Wenger aims to minimize or avoid this violence. Has the violence already started, and how might it differ this time around? 

(24:52) How new inventions often replace old methods, and people adapt. AI could be the first technology in our lifetime to put many people out of work. Should we be worried? While we’re used to working with people in complex organizations, AI’s impact may take time to fully manifest, much like the gradual replacement of horses by cars.

(32:01) Why learning how to work with AI tools can give you a future advantage. 

(33:49) The world population faces fertility problems and declining birth rates. If population decline is gradual, it’s manageable. But how will it play out? 

(38:01) Nat, Neil, and Adil point out one major disagreement they have with the author's idea of how to find meaning in your life.

(40:30) The first of Wenger’s proposed solutions is mindfulness and meditation.

(42:19) Wenger emphasizes information freedom with internet access for all, which is a good start. Decentralizing access ensures it can't be stopped or taken away. We also touch on the topic of universal basic income (UBI),

(45:42) Do we just need to "get over" our right to privacy and scarcity thinking? We explain our disagreements with Wenger and how privacy may be incompatible with technological progress.

(55:03) Transforming a place from dangerous to moderately safe is no easy feat. We examine El Salvador's turnaround under Bukele. 

(1:00:17) Discussing the significant changes over the span of 20 years. We also talk about cars made in China, noting how the perception of "Made in China" has evolved from being seen as cheap to being recognized for quality.

(1:03:15) If a solution requires "everyone needs to," it’s likely not a practical solution. Effective solutions must work with current incentives and human behavior. We discuss the importance of having a fluid career identity and finding deeper meaning in life beyond a job.

(1:07:32) That concludes this episode! Have you read The World After Capital? Let us know your thoughts! Next up, we will be reading Endurance by Alfred Lansing. Grab a copy of the book here, check out our website, and give us a follow on Instagram to stay in the loop on what's happening on the Made You Think podcast.

If you enjoyed this episode, let us know by leaving a review on iTunes and tell a friend. As always, let us know if you have any book recommendations! You can say hi to us on Twitter @TheRealNeilS, @adilmajid, @nateliason and share your thoughts on this episode.

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Thanks for listening. See you next time!