The Positive Expectations Regression Candidate for 2023

Justin Herbert's 25 touchdowns were nine below expectations based on all of his past attempts and where they came from. That would have made him finish as the QB five in redraft leagues last year. He was one of 14 signal callers that had at least 50 rush attempts but didn't have a rushing touchdown. If we get three or four rushing touchdowns out of Herbert instead of zero, he comes in on the high end of his expected passing touchdown number.

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