There's a lot of uncertainty out there about the economy and you sense the sort of growing warmth in the press for the idea that we're going to escape recession. According to the Wall Street Journal, recent good news on inflation has ignited a debate over how much central banks interest rate increases are responsible. If higher rates were not responsible for progress on inflation today, that suggests central banks could be able to lower them before a painful recession sets in. The answer matters where inflation interest rates are headed.

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