Forecasting Interest Rates and Central Bank Policy

Divergence is the most oct-cited narrative when it comes to Canadian macro right now and, for good reason. In this episode, Ian is joined by Andrew Grantham, and the duo begin the episode by dissecting the latest Canadian jobs report. Despite the eye-popping headline number, the reality is that ‘under the hood’ there is ample evidence of a labour market that is slowing. Andrew spends time digging into this, and comparing/contrasting to the U.S. labour market. Ian gives his opinion on ‘where’ this macro divergence is priced into the bond curve, and provides his favourite trades on this theme. They do a situational analysis on the pace of BoC cuts, and conclude that whenever the Bank starts easing, regardless how far they get ahead of the Fed, the upcoming cycle will be irregular and shallower than most think.