What I Learned In 2020 - John Hempton
The Joe Walker Podcast
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The Kruger Effect: How the Virus Didn't Behave That Way
In February and possibly into early March in some places, those models fit reality extremely well. We were wrong about the amount of the mortality but we had a model in our head about how this thing was going to go. If you'd asked me how many dead Americans they were going to wind up being at my end, so would have at the time been about 3 million. Which is a big number, much more than the probable end game. The people who are actually infected skew young and healthy. Another effect is that it answers a little bit about why Sweden wasn't as awful as you might expect, but the US is worse. It took me fully six months, no, five months to
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