European defence, sovereignty and commercial ties

Hosts: Dan Bowyer, Lomax Ward, Mads Jensen

Episode summary

This week we cover Trump’s Greenland rhetoric and the broader implications for NATO, European defence spending, and sovereignty. Then we dive into the tech and markets that (quietly) moved: Meta’s acquisition of Manus, Octopus/“Kraken” spinning out as a major energy-software player, Discord’s IPO momentum, Revolut’s Turkey expansion via license acquisition, and why UK pensions are underperforming (plus what reform could actually fix). We finish with a big CES-driven AI corner—Nvidia’s autonomous-driving stack “Alpamayo,” the China compute/memory bottleneck, AMD vs Nvidia software moats, Grok’s enormous fundraise, and why Claude Code is showing up even inside Google.

Topics
00:37 OpenAI “Health ChatGPT” launches (not in Europe) — what’s the deal?
02:26 FDA signals faster AI regulation: “move at the speed of Silicon Valley”
08:10 Trump + Greenland: history, Thule, and where’s the grift?
11:29 Pax Americana cracks
16:10 France: ban social media under-15s
18:21 EU regulation vs US deregulation: wedge widens
21:06 Meta buying Manus
22:27 Kraken (Octopus) spinout: big UK tech hiding in plain sight
25:02 IPO watch: Discord momentum + how it monetises
26:15 Revolut → Turkey via FUPS: buying access and licenses globally
29:19 UK pensions: underperformance + pushback on forced private allocations
31:57 Why pensions underperform
39:09 German dentists pension lawsuit + “shrimp farm VC” cautionary tale
40:27 Markets: FTSE hits 10,000 + quietly outperforms S&P
43:15 Biotech rebound + psychedelics
47:02 CES 2026... 
48:05 Nvidia’s “Alpamayo”: full autonomy stack + open models/data
50:34 Nvidia vertical apps vs chips: execution risk outside core semis
52:07 China + H200s: memory bottlenecks and geopolitics of compute supply
53:20 AMD vs Nvidia: the CUDA/software moat
54:35 Grok raises: $20B at $230B
56:44 Claude Code: adoption even inside Google
57:25 Deals of the week: Faculty exit to Accenture
59:47 Biographica raises to build next-gen crop tech

Notable moments / quotables

• “The only people using cash or violence to negotiate are mobsters.” (12:32)
• “It’s super easy to get autonomy to 99%… the last 1% takes 10 years.” (48:52, referenced)
• “Much better to pay 2% to deliver 15% than 0.1% to deliver 1%.” (30:25)

Deal of the week

• Lomax: Faculty reportedly sold to Accenture (UK AI/enterprise decision intelligence)
• Dan: Kraken spun out of Octopus Energy (energy metering + grid/flows platform)
• Mads: Biographica raises to build technology for next-gen, more resilient crops