4min chapter

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Professor Brad Cornell: A Skeptic’s Look at the Cross Section of Expected Returns (EP.151)

The Rational Reminder Podcast

CHAPTER

What's the Theory of the Big Market Delusion?

When we have these instances of what you describe as a big market delusion, where everyone gets really excited about the sector without accounting for the competition piece, does it always end in a crash? How can this possibly play out? I don't think always, I haven't really studied that. But it's certainly if you think of the entire market of all the companies together, I think it does tend to play out that you may have one or two big winners if the market takes off as projected. Like Amazon in the online market, we had back in 2000, hundreds of those companies. And they basically all failed and then Amazon became a mega-lith.

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