Carl Weinberg, Chief Economist and Managing Director at High Frequency Economics, discusses why he sees supply chain disruption as the biggest risk in 2026. The labor market remains tight with unemployment near historic lows and no evidence of weakness, even as payroll growth slows due to labor supply constraints. Recent productivity gains have helped sustain growth, but they may prove temporary and insufficient to offset structural limits. As tariffs work their way into prices, inflation risks are rising, increasing the likelihood that the Fed pauses or tightens policy later in 2026. More concerning than inflation, however, is the vulnerability of U.S. supply chains to China, which dominates nearly every critical industrial material. A disruption would pose a direct and severe threat to U.S. growth and industrial capacity. Weinberg spoke with Bloomberg's Tom Keene and Paul Sweeney.
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