Episode 480: Tail Risk Strategies, Better Approaches Using Diversification And Who To Learn That From, Fund Taxonomy, And Portfolio Reviews As Of January 16, 2026
Risk Parity Radio
Why constant tail hedges drag returns
Frank explains tail-risk ETFs historically have negative expectation and typically underperform long-term bonds.
In this episode we answer emails from Gregory and Isaiah. We discuss whether tail-hedged ETFs belong in a retirement portfolio, then map out a cleaner path with Treasuries as recession insurance, a value tilt for equity resilience. We also discuss the problems with relying on voices from popular personal finance unless they are well supported by professional and academic teachings, and the importance of the four quadrant model in understanding correlations and diversification. We also a practical taxonomy for classifying holdings.
And THEN we our go through our weekly portfolio reviews of the eight sample portfolios you can find at Portfolios | Risk Parity Radio.
Additional Links:
Father McKenna Center Donation Page: Donate - Father McKenna Center
Links Page at Risk Parity Radio: Links | Risk Parity Radio
Analysis of Tail Risk ETFs: testfol.io/analysis?s=jCSSoT7bFRe
Bob Elliot Macro Masterclass: Bob Elliott, Unlimited Funds – A Macro Masterclass
Bob Elliot on Excess Returns: Understanding Economic Cycles | Bob Elliott
"Best of" Bob Elliot on Excess Returns: Markets Always Return to Economic Reality | Bob Elliott Explains How It Happens
Bob Elliot on The Compound: The Blue Chips of Junk | TCAF 175
Portfolio Tracker: GitHub - danbuchal/portfolio-tracker: Portfolio Tracker: Track your investments and asset allocation
Breathless Unedited AI-Bot Summary:
Looking for protection without sacrificing long-term returns? We dig into a donor’s question about using tail-hedged ETFs like SPD and SPYC for early retirement and explain why constant hedging tends to bleed performance. The core idea is simple: prioritize assets with positive expected returns that also diversify when it matters. That’s where long-term Treasuries serve as recession insurance and why picking the right time horizon for correlation analysis changes everything.
From there, we zoom out to the four-quadrant framework—growth and inflation as the axes that drive correlations. Stocks thrive in positive growth with moderate inflation, Treasuries support you in weak growth and disinflation, and assets like gold and managed futures help when inflation shifts. If passive flows are reshaping markets, the practical antidote isn’t a new product; it’s a value tilt on the equity side. History shows value, especially small-cap value, is a reliable counterweight when growth-heavy indexes crack.
We also share a clear, DIY method to audit and classify your holdings ahead of retirement. Start with growth vs value as your primary lens, use size as a secondary tilt, and treat international exposure as tertiary since currency swings drive much of the variance. Tools like Morningstar and Portfolio Tracker make it easy to roll up accounts, view factor exposure, and keep your targets on track. Finally, we walk through our sample portfolios and a crisp market snapshot—gold’s strength, steady REITs and commodities, and how leveraged mixes are faring—to show how these principles play out in real allocations.
If this helps you build a stronger plan, follow the show, share it with a friend who’s rethinking their hedge, and leave a quick review to help more DIY investors find us.
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