Writing Excuses 10.36: How Does Context Shape Plot Twists?
Writing Excuses
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Intrigue Versus Mystery
The tension in a book cannot be built on the surprise of the reader, it has to be built on characters. One danger of the reader figuring out too early is that them thinking that the characters are foolish for not figuring it out. And so you need to have legitimate reasons why the characters aren't figuring this out. Some of those things can be things like having the character identify a list of possible reasons that X is occurring and give them very logical reasons for picking not for discounting the actual solution.
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