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David Epstein | Range: Why Generalists Triumph in Today’s Specialized World

Hidden Forces

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How to Overestimate Your Own Chances of Success

We do the inside view very intuitively. It's so persuasive that if you ask someone to research, say, political candidates or like a horse in the Kentucky Derby, they will raise their probability prediction of why that person will lose. So you want to start by zooming out and looking at these like larger external features of what usually happens before you start focusing on the minutiae.

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