Rethinking Data Presentation: Probabilities Versus Certainties

We’re thrilled to kick off the New Year with our first guest Stephen Clapham. You may remember Stephen from our episode at the Quality Growth Conference, but he’s widely recognised in both City and Wall Street circles for his impressive career. He’s been a sell side and a buy side analyst, founded his own research boutique and launched the popular website Behind the Balance Sheet, which offers courses on understanding accounting in complex situations. Stephen is also the host of a highly regarded podcast and Substack under the same name, where he has interviewed some of the biggest names in finance. On top of that, he is the author of the book, The Smart Money Method - How to Pick Stocks Like a Hedge Fund Pro. In this episode, we discuss: the critical role of accounting proficiency in asset management; balancing company narratives with the hard facts of accounting; why probabilities can mislead earning estimates, and the importance of ranges; how much time an analyst should dedicate to studying a single company; and finally, how to manage today’s constant information overload. Enjoy!

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