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The Importance of Recidiving
A lot of the people who go to prison are what you said, frequent offenders. There are many people that go to prison or get convicted for the first time and never get convicted again. The guy that offends once gets convicted and never shows up again isn't going to be collected in a sample of recidivists. You're overestimating the actual recidivism risk by 30 to 40% depending on what measure you're talking about.