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76: Range by David Epstein

Bookworm

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The Pitfalls of Expertise in Forecasting

This chapter discusses the limitations of expert knowledge in making accurate forecasts, contrasting the integrative thinking of 'foxes' with the narrow focus of 'hedgehogs'. It highlights the tendency of individuals to remain confident in their inaccurate predictions and emphasizes the importance of being open to changing one's beliefs. Anecdotes about firefighters and the Challenger explosion illustrate the tension between data-driven decision making and human instinct in critical situations.

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