The Risk Premium in the Futures Market

Maynard Keynes was the originator of this idea that you should view a commodity futures market as an insurance market so it's an insurance metaphor. The speculator is providing price insurance for the producer and they will demand a return for providing that insurance well the way in the markets Keynes thought that that insurance premium was exchanged was in the form of biased prices before expiration. That theory has been argued about in the literature ever since Keynes proposed it in the 20s and 30s but there's no evidence that there's any significant premium in commodity futures markets like some financial economists have claimed.