The Rewind: Uncertainty
The Memo by Howard Marks
Knowing Your Limits in a Pandemic
In the middle of a pandemic, knowledge is in short supply. We don't know how many people are infected or how many people will be. People who are always sure are no more helpful than people who are never sure. The real expert's confidence is reason based and proportional to the weight of the evidence. Incompetent people are at a double disadvantage since they are not only incompetent, but also likely unaware of it.
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