In this episode, Capital Flows joins the show to break down how credit growth, falling real rates, and strong cross-border flows fueled the rally from April through summer, and why the Fed’s recent hawkish shift has introduced short-term volatility without meaningfully raising recession risk. We also cover auto-loan stress, the real drivers behind AI-linked equity moves, why geopolitics now shapes liquidity more than the Fed, and more. Enjoy!
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Timestamps:
(00:00) Introduction
(01:44) Macro & the Credit Cycle
(05:22) Quantifying Credit Growth
(09:43) Grayscale Ad
(10:24) Impact of Fed’s Hawkish Pivot
(13:41) Recession Odds
(16:38) Auto Loan Stress & Markets vs Economy
(20:28) Market Dispersion & Mag7
(21:22) Mag7: Capex, Financial Engineering, Politics
(25:59) Geopolitics & Cross-Border Flows
(29:28) Grayscale Ad
(30:16) Geopolitics & Cross-Border Flows (Con’t)
(35:08) U.S.-China Trade Constraints
(40:29) Bitcoin & Neutral Assets
(47:21) View on U.S. Equities
(50:57) Final Thoughts
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Disclaimer: Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.
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