The Probability of a Large Event

There's a very important point I'd like you to elaborate on in a note with Nossum Tarlab and Joe Norman titled Systemic Risk of Pandemic Fire Novel Pathogens. You wrote that estimates of the R0 are biased downwards because of fat tailedness, which has to do with super spreaders. Do you want to just explain how that works? Sure. So there was a case where someone went to a religious service in South Korea. And there are like 3000 people that resulted from that infection. That wasn't the first round. It turns out that even figuring out what R not is very hard, because it depends upon whether you have one or other large events.

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