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World Outlook 2023: The Looming Recession

Podzept from Deutsche Bank Research

CHAPTER

What's the Outlook for 2023?

Headline inflation surprised us to the downside most recently in November, but the market should beware false dawns when it comes to headline inflation. Fission is probably peaked, but there are significant distortions in terms of how energy inflation is measured at the moment. The key to securing the normalization of inflation ultimately will come down to wages and services prices. If growth slows as we expect, then wage growth should normalize from about 5% next year down to about 3% by 2025.

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