Macro Notes: Recession Odds and Housing Trends

This bull market is crashing and no one is talking about it! We kick off the fourth quarter by talking about how the government shut down has impacted the market. Precious metals—particularly gold, silver, and mining stocks—continue to surge in a largely overlooked bull market.

We also critique flawed data interpretations and talk the dangers of drawing false conclusions and the importance of treating data as correlation, not truth. We urge you to think critically about information in both science and finance.

We discuss...

• Markets have largely ignored the government shutdown, even moving higher despite it.
• Gold, silver, and mining stocks are in a powerful bull market that most investors are overlooking.
• Data shows correlation, not truth, and conclusions must be questioned.
• Investors should focus on price action and risk management, not the "why" behind moves.
• Private equity firms are overleveraged, with declining returns and cash flow–negative companies.
• While some private equity opportunities may exist, most are poor deals for average investors.
• Examples like JoAnn Fabrics and Red Lobster are cited as once-strong businesses destroyed by debt-heavy private equity ownership.
• Public backlash is growing as stories emerge of private equity "ruining" local businesses, hospitals, and jobs.
• The Big Ten Conference is reportedly exploring selling part of its media rights to private equity for short-term funding.
• Private investors could demand control over athletic or academic decisions, clashing with university missions.
• A lack of ethical grounding and values fuels these destructive financial practices.
• Many societal problems stem from short-term greed and moral decay rather than lack of opportunity.
• They review sector strength, noting broad participation and strong 52-week highs as signs of market health.
• Market breadth is strong, showing that many stocks—not just the "Magnificent 7"—are participating in gains.
• A "bull market behavior checklist" shows most indicators remain positive, suggesting momentum continues.
• Seasonal charts show typical market strength in early and late-year periods, but be cautious against overreliance on averages.
• They warn investors to be cautious even in strong markets, as low defensive positioning can precede pullbacks.
• Wealth preservation depends not just on building assets but structuring them to last.

For more information, visit the show notes at https://moneytreepodcast.com/this-bull-market-is-crashing

Today's Panelists:

Kirk Chisholm | Innovative Wealth Douglas Heagren | Mergent College Advisors

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