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Ep 128: Steven Pinker’s ”Rationality” Chapter 5 ”Beliefs & Evidence (Bayesian Reasoning” Remarks & Analysis

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Are We Dating With Evidence?

People come up with their priors by guessing. It's a purely subjective way of arriving at this supposedly objective number plugged into this supposedly objective theorem. Pinker goes on to say in the next sentence that believing in something before you look at the evidence may seem like the epitome of irrationality. But prior credence is simply the fallible knowledge accumulated from all our experience in the past, is it indeed? Well, this reminds me of david douche's parable of the calendar in 19 99. I think it's in the fabric of reality. So whether you're born yesterday or not, you're not updating your pris.

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