The Importance of Expected Returns and Return Expectations

In this episode, we tackle the timely topic of higher interest rates and their potential impact on investors' decisions. With rates soaring to unprecedented levels, many are tempted to veer off their investment paths in pursuit of short-term gains. But is this a rational choice? We break it down and offer invaluable insights into why staying the course might be the wiser option. We also welcome new PWL team member Mark McGrath. Mark possesses an innate talent for crafting concise, valuable, and captivating financial planning nuggets on social media. His content has struck a chord with the audience, evident from his rapidly expanding following. Next, we take a nostalgic trip back to one of our favourite past episodes, featuring a remarkable guest, David Booth, co-founder of Dimensional Fund Advisors. With a quick review of the episode, listeners get a refresher on Booth's sage advice and investment philosophies, reminding us all why this episode remains a standout. For the book segment, Michael Tremblay, a passionate listener, and stoicism expert, reached out to suggest an exploration of The Handbook of Epictetus. We welcome Michael to the show for an enlightening discussion on the principles of stoicism and how they can be applied to investing and everyday life.

 

Key Points From This Episode:

 

• Introducing new PWL team member, Mark McGrath. (0:02:22)

• Background about Mark and his journey to PWL Capital. (0:03:35)

• What Mark appreciates most about working at PWL: its core values. (0:08:45)

• Why cash is an extremely risky long-term investment option. (0:11:47)

• We explore ‘buying the dip’ and expected returns versus return expectations. (0:24:31)

• Highlights and key takeaways from our conversation with David Booth. (0:29:07)

• The Handbook of Epictetus and devoted listener Michael Tremblay's background. (0:31:22)

• Stoicism basics, who Epictetus was, and the key idea behind the philosophy. (0:33:30)

• How stoicism can benefit everyday investors. (0:36:09)

• A breakdown of the various ‘tools’  and practices The Stoics developed. (0:39:26)

• Similarities Stoicism has with the rational reminder approach to investing. (0:43:07)

• Making the distinction between what is in your control and what is not. (0:46:16)

• The role of emotions and death in investing from a Stoicism perspective. (0:47:41)

• Michael shares his definition of success. (0:53:45)

• The after-show featuring updates, book recommendations, upcoming guests, and more. (0:55:11)

 

Quotes:

 

“PWL as a firm and the podcast specifically have been absolutely formative in how I deliver financial planning and portfolio management advice.” — Mark McGrath (0:06:58)

 

“Now risky assets, like stocks and bonds, sound risky. We call them risky assets for a reason. But the thing is, in investing, risk is not always a bad thing.” — Benjamin Felix (0:15:09)

 

“Expected returns matter a lot for long-term investors because they're relying on their assets to generate returns far into the future.” — Benjamin Felix (0:19:39)

 

“There's this emotional aspect of stoicism, this kind of cool-headedness. And that cool-headedness comes from adopting this growth mindset and adopting this focus on what's in your control.” — Michael Tremblay (0:36:38)

 

“The right approach to investing is one that is borne out by the facts. It's not driven by a bone to pick.” — Michael Tremblay (0:43:54)

 

“For Stoicism, what is up to us is exclusively our minds. Exclusively, the choices and decisions that we make.” — Michael Tremblay (0:46:18)

Participate in our Community Discussion about this Episode: https://community.rationalreminder.ca/t/episode-265-5-hisa-for-the-long-run-plus-stoicism-with-michael-tremblay-discussion-thread/24716

 

Book From Today’s Episode:

The Handbook of Epictetus — https://amzn.to/3s2k7V4

  Links From Today’s Episode:

Rational Reminder on iTunes — https://itunes.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-rational-reminder-podcast/id1426530582. Rational Reminder Website — https://rationalreminder.ca/ 

Shop Merch — https://shop.rationalreminder.ca/

Join the Community — https://community.rationalreminder.ca/

Follow us on Twitter — https://twitter.com/RationalRemind

Follow us on Instagram — @rationalreminder

Benjamin on X — https://twitter.com/benjaminwfelix

Cameron on X — https://twitter.com/CameronPassmore

Michael Tremblay on X — https://twitter.com/_MikeTremblay

Mark McGrath on X — https://twitter.com/MarkMcGrathCFP

Michael Tremblay — https://www.tremblaymichael.com/

Stoa Meditation Website — https://stoameditation.com

Stoa Letter — https://www.stoaletter.com

'Reaching for yield: Evidence from households' — https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4283008

'Crash beliefs from investor surveys' — https://doi.org/10.3386/w22143

'Who should buy long-term bonds?' — https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.91.1.99

'Portfolios for long-term investors' — https://doi.org/10.1093/rof/rfab038

'Presidential address: Discount rates' — https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-6261.2011.01671.x

'Long-horizon losses in stocks, bonds, and bills: Evidence from a broad sample of developed markets' — https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3964908