
EP20: Prof Rob Hyndman: Forecasting COVID, time-series, and why causality doesnt matter as much as you think.
The Curious Quant
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Forecasting Uncertainty - What Is Knowable at That Range?
I fell into this research project of Waback where we were trying to understand again 10 years ahead which doesn't feel that long but actually in financial world there's like another recession and another you know rise and shape of economies or whatever. So it feels like we can talk about I don't know the climate at 10 years ahead with some amount of accuracy maybe we can talk About birth rates death rates stuff like that. It depends a lot on the inertia of the series so something like mortality rates they're extremely predictable for several decades ahead. But after the next few years because who knows what's going to happen in terms of electric vehicles or efficiency of technology or whatever so I'm in a very
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