Clay Graubard and Robert de Neufville on forecasting the war in Ukraine
80k After Hours
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How to Get Better at Forecasting
i think that the more forecasters can connect with expert knowledge, the better the forecast are going to be. And there's really sort of two approaches that i've seen people take. One is go for quantity. The approach that andrew and i took to get better at forecasting is being very confident in our numbers. Use something called base rates, which is the historical occurrence that events have. Figure out like, your own research, your own method. Maybe compare, like, oh, the community's at 60 %, the base rates 30%. I did some reading, i can kindly see where the community is, but i think they're a little bit high. But i do think,
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