Nassim Nicholas Taleb on Black Swans
EconTalk
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The Fat Tails and the Black Swan That Get You
We tend to think that pay er, even physically oat itis, more than intellectually or physically, that you make money for three, four, five days to you no wat. Your prostible person can ignore the possibility of a er large loss, even in a gautian world. And as a few good days in a row, might be fooled by random us into thinking that they are skilled at what they're doing exact i may not feel that myself. So basically, they're completely fooled by small sampling. They live in extremeis anesy. Oh, you you know what? I've had a two good year, three good years, not sufficient to have a small probability
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