The Fat Tails and the Black Swan That Get You

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We tend to think that pay er, even physically oat itis, more than intellectually or physically, that you make money for three, four, five days to you no wat. Your prostible person can ignore the possibility of a er large loss, even in a gautian world. And as a few good days in a row, might be fooled by random us into thinking that they are skilled at what they're doing exact i may not feel that myself. So basically, they're completely fooled by small sampling. They live in extremeis anesy. Oh, you you know what? I've had a two good year, three good years, not sufficient to have a small probability

Nassim Taleb talks about the challenges of coping with uncertainty, predicting events, and understanding history. This wide-ranging conversation looks at investment, health, history and other areas where data play a key role. Taleb, the author of Fooled By Randomness and The Black Swan, imagines two countries, Mediocristan and Extremistan where the ability to understand the past and predict the future is radically different. Taleb's contention is that we often bring our intuition from Mediocristan for the events of Extremistan, leading us to error. The result is a tendency to be blind-sided by the unexpected.