The Unpredictability of Broadway Production

A hit like Hamilton can come from nowhere while a sure bet can lose $20 million in a flash. We speak with some of the biggest producers in the game — Sonia Friedman, Jeffrey Seller, Hal Luftig — and learn that there is only one guarantee: the theater owners always win. (Part two of a three-part series.)

• SOURCES:
  • Debby Buchholz, managing director of La Jolla Playhouse.
  • Sonia Friedman, Broadway producer.
  • Rocco Landesman, Broadway producer, former owner of Jujamcyn Theaters, former chairman of the National Endowment for the Arts.
  • Hal Luftig, Broadway producer.
  • Luis Miranda Jr., political strategist, founding president of the Hispanic Federation, the Northern Manhattan Arts Alliance, Viva Broadway, and The Public Theater.
  • Michael Rushton, professor of arts administration at Indiana University.
  • Jeffrey Seller, Broadway producer.
  • Richard Winkler, Broadway producer.
  • Stacy Wolf, professor of theater at Princeton University.

• RESOURCES:
  • Theater Kid: A Broadway Memoir, by Jeffrey Seller (2025).
  • Relentless: My Story of the Latino Spirit That Is Transforming America, by Luis Miranda Jr. (2024).
  • Beyond Broadway: The Pleasure and Promise of Musical Theatre Across America, by Stacy Wolf (2019).
  • "‘Hamilton’ Inc.: The Path to a Billion-Dollar Broadway Show," by Michael Paulson and David Gelles (New York Times, 2016).
  • "On the Performing Arts: The Anatomy of Their Economic Problems," by W.J. Baumol and W.G. Bowen (The American Economic Review, 1965).

• EXTRAS:
  • “How to Make the Coolest Show on Broadway,” by Freakonomics Radio (2024).
  • “You Can Make a Killing, but Not a Living,” by Freakonomics Radio (2024).