39: A World at War: Inevitable or Avoidable?
Warships Pod
Escalation Towards Global Conflict: The Case for Inevitable War
This chapter examines the potential inevitability of a global conflict, analyzing the 2022 invasion of Ukraine as a pivotal moment. Through historical examples and theoretical insights, it underscores the urgent need for strategic responses to prevent escalating tensions and chaos.
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In this episode of the Warships Pod guests David Murrin and Dr David Blagden, with help from host Iain Ballantyne, discuss a worldwide struggle in a multi-polar era that is rapidly turning kinetic - from Ukraine, to the Red Sea and Gaza. It may soon burn even hotter should China invade Taiwan and/or the USA attack Iran.
A number of topics are discussed during this episode, including the following:
*Does the European Union (EU) have a place in such a world, at the top table? Or is it going to be sweeping up the crumbs along with the UK, the latter finding itself a bridge to neither the USA or the EU?
*Bearing in mind the UK is a maritime nation, is committing what remains of the British armed forces to policing a frozen war in Ukraine unwise? Do we risk a situation where things get bogged down in that theatre while the Russians run amok at sea, with the UK defenceless?
*With concerted attacks by US Navy carrier jets and cruise missile attacks by other USN units against the Houthis in Yemen is it at odds with the Trump administration’s supposed urgent priority of facing down China and its huge navy? Every missile expended against the Houthis is surely one less for use against the Chinese?
*Narrowing the discussion down to the UK, with the Labour government announcing plans to cut welfare to pay for Defence boosts, how do the two Davids think the Royal Navy should mould itself?
Finally - and this is a big one for the episode’s final point of discussion - are we heading inexorably towards what the tabloids might call WW3? Or can it be avoided?
The May 2025 edition of Warships IFR is published on 22.4.25 in the UK and also deployed globally. Visit the magazine web site http://bit.ly/wifrmag Also, follow it on X @WarshipsIFR Facebook @WarshipsIFR and Warships IFR TV on YouTube @warshipsifrtv3668 For more on various editions of the magazine https://bit.ly/wifri
•Dr David Blagden is Associate Professor in International Security and Strategy at the University of Exeter. Dr Blagden has previously worked in the Cabinet Office, regularly consults for several UK Government departments, and has served as Specialist Advisor to a Parliamentary Select Committee. He is also a Senior Associate Fellow of the NATO Defense College and a Visiting Fellow of the Royal Navy Strategic Studies Centre. Find him on X @blagden_david
• David Murrin is a Global Forecaster, investor, polymath and author of ‘Breaking the Code of History’ (2011). He has a talent for spotting and analysing deep-seated patterns in history and using them to try and understand the present and also where we might be going in today’s turbulent geopolitical scene. His other books are ‘Lions Led by Lions’ (2018), ‘Now or Never’ (2021) and ‘Red Lightning’ (2021). The latter is a work of faction that depicts China winning a world war. David Murrin’s web site is https://www.davidmurrin.co.uk/about Find him on X @GlobalForecastr
•Iain Ballantyne is the founding and current Editor of ‘Warships IFR’ magazine (first published in 1998) along with its ‘Guide to the Royal Navy’ (since 2003) and ‘Guide to the US Navy’ (since 2018). Iain is also author of the books ‘Hunter Killers’ (Orion) and ‘The Deadly Trade’ (Weidenfeld & Nicolson), both about submarine warfare, plus ‘Arnhem: Ten Days in The Cauldron’ and ‘Bismarck: 24 Hours to Doom’ (published by Canelo). In 2017 Iain was awarded a Fellowship by the British Maritime Foundation, which promotes awareness of the United Kingdom’s dependence on the sea and seafarers. Visit his web site Bismarckbattle.com and follow him on X @IBallantyn
A number of topics are discussed during this episode, including the following:
*Does the European Union (EU) have a place in such a world, at the top table? Or is it going to be sweeping up the crumbs along with the UK, the latter finding itself a bridge to neither the USA or the EU?
*Bearing in mind the UK is a maritime nation, is committing what remains of the British armed forces to policing a frozen war in Ukraine unwise? Do we risk a situation where things get bogged down in that theatre while the Russians run amok at sea, with the UK defenceless?
*With concerted attacks by US Navy carrier jets and cruise missile attacks by other USN units against the Houthis in Yemen is it at odds with the Trump administration’s supposed urgent priority of facing down China and its huge navy? Every missile expended against the Houthis is surely one less for use against the Chinese?
*Narrowing the discussion down to the UK, with the Labour government announcing plans to cut welfare to pay for Defence boosts, how do the two Davids think the Royal Navy should mould itself?
Finally - and this is a big one for the episode’s final point of discussion - are we heading inexorably towards what the tabloids might call WW3? Or can it be avoided?
The May 2025 edition of Warships IFR is published on 22.4.25 in the UK and also deployed globally. Visit the magazine web site http://bit.ly/wifrmag Also, follow it on X @WarshipsIFR Facebook @WarshipsIFR and Warships IFR TV on YouTube @warshipsifrtv3668 For more on various editions of the magazine https://bit.ly/wifri
•Dr David Blagden is Associate Professor in International Security and Strategy at the University of Exeter. Dr Blagden has previously worked in the Cabinet Office, regularly consults for several UK Government departments, and has served as Specialist Advisor to a Parliamentary Select Committee. He is also a Senior Associate Fellow of the NATO Defense College and a Visiting Fellow of the Royal Navy Strategic Studies Centre. Find him on X @blagden_david
• David Murrin is a Global Forecaster, investor, polymath and author of ‘Breaking the Code of History’ (2011). He has a talent for spotting and analysing deep-seated patterns in history and using them to try and understand the present and also where we might be going in today’s turbulent geopolitical scene. His other books are ‘Lions Led by Lions’ (2018), ‘Now or Never’ (2021) and ‘Red Lightning’ (2021). The latter is a work of faction that depicts China winning a world war. David Murrin’s web site is https://www.davidmurrin.co.uk/about Find him on X @GlobalForecastr
•Iain Ballantyne is the founding and current Editor of ‘Warships IFR’ magazine (first published in 1998) along with its ‘Guide to the Royal Navy’ (since 2003) and ‘Guide to the US Navy’ (since 2018). Iain is also author of the books ‘Hunter Killers’ (Orion) and ‘The Deadly Trade’ (Weidenfeld & Nicolson), both about submarine warfare, plus ‘Arnhem: Ten Days in The Cauldron’ and ‘Bismarck: 24 Hours to Doom’ (published by Canelo). In 2017 Iain was awarded a Fellowship by the British Maritime Foundation, which promotes awareness of the United Kingdom’s dependence on the sea and seafarers. Visit his web site Bismarckbattle.com and follow him on X @IBallantyn
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