The Fed's Forecasted Path to Fed Policy

This is not the first time that the market has aggressively front-run a dovish turn in Fed policy. So we shouldn't over-praise the market for being kind of prescient around both growth, inflation, and the path of Fed policy. And it is certainly plausible that rates may not yet have reached a level sufficiently high to restrain economic activity. When we add to that the uncertainty around the banking system and how ultimately negative that may be for the lending impulse...this is a more moment to be a little more cautious around a policy response.