How to Overestimate What You Can Do in a Year

When you're evaluating something, what time horizon are you actually thinking about? What it could be like if this actually manifests itself? Do you use an infrastructure example or something? It's cliche now to say is that we overestimate what we can do in a year. But there is this thing you have to teach yourself because it's not instinctive and it's certainly something that we weren't wired up with statistical minds. And so our perception tends to be of the present.

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